Labour set for fall in May Elections

 

Labour could lose well over 1,000 seats in crunch May elections, experts warn

Labour could lose "well over" 1,000 councillors in May's crunch local elections, experts have predicted.

The nightmare analysis warns the figure could also be as high as 2,000 if the pattern of the party's fall in vote share in a raft of recent council by-elections continues.

It comes as Keir Starmer's party defends more than half of the 5,000 council seats up for grabs across England in 136 councils on May 7. The elections will coincide with major votes in Scotland and Wales where the public will cast their ballots in the devolved administrations. It will be the Prime Minister's biggest electoral test since the 2024 general election.

In their analysis for the Local Government Chronicle experts Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher - associate members of Nuffield College, Oxford - say: “This year it is Labour in the spotlight as it defends more than half of the 5,013 seats falling vacant across 136 councils.

“That dominance reflects the party’s strength in London and the metropolitan boroughs where it currently controls no fewer than 44 of the 64 councils with elections. A repeat of last year and Labour could be well over 1,000 councillors down.

“Indeed, it has retained just a quarter of the seats being defended at local by-elections since last May, suffering an average decline of 25% in vote share. A hit of that magnitude would see the party’s losses edging closer to 2,000!”

They also conclude gains for Nigel Farage's Reform UK are "inevitable" given the low base from which the right-wing party is starting from. They added: "It may be that support for Reform has plateaued, but given it won only three seats four years ago substantial gains from such a low base are inevitable."

A Labour source told The Mirror paper: "Mid-term local elections tend to be difficult for incumbent governments. They aren’t usually a barometer for how governments do at the next general election. We'll be fighting for every vote and demonstrating to voters ahead of May that Labour is the only party with a plan to fix our NHS, support families with the cost of living, and restore pride in Britain. And it’s the right plan.”

On Monday the Prime Minister fired the starting gun on Labour's local elections campaign. He said campaigners should be going to the doorstep telling the public to "vote Labour because of our values, vote Labour because of our leadership".

He also contrasted his leadership on the Middle East conflict to flip-flopping Tory chief Kemi Badenoch and Mr Farage. He insisted Britain will not be dragged into the US-Israeli war with Tehran, and warned his rivals' "terrible judgement" would already have embroiled the UK in the conflict.

Mr Starmer also said the backdrop to the elections was "uncertain", adding: "We're facing a war on two fronts - the Ukraine war, now four-and-a-bit years in - and let's salute the bravery of Ukrainians over so many years, both on the front line and the civilians, as they fight for the values that matter.

"And now the other front, the other war, which is the Iran war, which I know is causing huge concern. People look at their screens and they're worried when they see explosions, infrastructure blown up, the rhetoric that goes with it, worried about whether this is going to escalate even further."